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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Climate Science Updated

The synthesis report from the March 2009 climate change conference has now been released. This is one of the most important publications since the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007. Click here to download a copy.

The message from the world's climate scientists couldn't be clearer. The Earth is warming at an accelerating rate, and climate change is happening faster than previously predicted. To avoid ecological, social and economic catastrophe, we need to act now to reduce emissions, and that means, primarily, burning less fossil fuels and replacing them with renewable energy technologies.

The Yarra Valley Climate Action Group has prepared a summary of the synthesis report, available here.

Sunday, June 21, 2009

YCAN joins the Climate Justice Now network

Yarra Climate Action Now has recently joined the Climate Justice Now (CJN) network. The network was formed at the Bali climate negotiations in December 2007, and now has hundreds of organisational members from across the globe. It is led and coordinated by climate action groups and others in the developing world.

Climate Justice is based on the understanding that, while climate change requires global action, the historical responsibility for the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions over the past 250 years lies with the developed countries like Australia. Cheap energy – in the form of oil, coal and gas – has been the engine of our rapid industrialisation and economic growth.

It is also the poorest communities that will face the worst impacts of climate change, and face them sooner than others. Climate Justice Now works to expose the false solutions to the climate emergency such as forest carbon markets, offsetting and agrofuels and pushes for solutions that will work, including:
  • leaving fossil fuels in the ground and investing instead in appropriate energy-efficiency and safe, clean and community-led renewable energy;
  • radically reducing wasteful consumption, first and foremost in the developed world, but also by developing world elites;
  • huge financial transfers from rich to poor countries, based on the repayment of climate debts and subject to democratic control. The costs of adaptation and mitigation should be paid for by redirecting military budgets, innovative taxes and debt cancellation;
  • rights-based resource conservation that enforces Indigenous land rights and promotes peoples' sovereignty over energy, forests, land and water; and
  • sustainable family farming and peoples' food sovereignty.

Yarra Climate Action Now has joined this network to show solidarity with those that are already bearing the brunt of climate change impacts, and to increase the pressure on the governments of the developed countries such as Australia, USA, Japan and Canada so they stop delaying and sabotaging a strong international agreement to reduce emissions and avoid runaway climate change.

If you would like to join the network, visit this website.

Sunday, June 14, 2009

Time for Plan B

Condemning the Rudd Government’s response to climate change as ‘dangerously inadequate’, a coalition of environmental groups has put forward a compelling alternative response entitled Plan B: An Agenda for Immediate Climate Action.

Greenpeace, Friends of the Earth, the Wilderness Society and the state-based conservation councils including Environment Victoria were amongst the key organisations, together representing more than 400,000 Australians, backing the alternative plan.

Plan B puts forward a range of policies and actions that can be taken immediately to halve Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade. These include:

Prioritising saving energy
  • Cutting energy use in manufacturing, commercial buildings and homes by 30% using available technology, with an average payback time of four years
  • Minimum 7-star rating for new homes and 5-star for commercial buildings, schools, hospitals and warehouses

Fast-tracking the switch to a renewable energy economy
  • Doubling the Renewable Energy Target to 90,000 GWh by 2020
  • A moratorium on new coal-fired power stations

Driving the shift to low emissions vehicles and sustainable cities
  • Adopting an emissions intensity target for new cars of 130grams per km by 2012 and investing in electric vehicles and public transport

Protecting our forests and woodlands as a carbon store and making agriculture part of the solution
  • Ending logging of old growth forests and major land clearing of mature and regrowth forests, woodlands and grasslands by 2011
  • Incentives for minimising the carbon and energy intensity of farming and agriculture

Growing the green job economy
  • The creation of nearly a million ‘green jobs’

The environment groups behind Plan B have called on the Rudd Government to abandon the fundamentally flawed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) which rewards big polluters and includes loopholes such as allowing unlimited carbon credits to be bought overseas.

This strong condemnation of the CPRS in its current form is consistent with the message put forward by Yarra Climate Action Now alongside 65 other climate action groups around Australia in a letter sent to Kevin Rudd in May.

The Rudd Government needs to let go of its flawed and irredeemable CPRS – it’s time for Plan B.

National Climate Emergency Rally


Yesterday’s National Climate Emergency Rally saw thousands of Australians take to the streets to demand the Rudd Government recognise climate change for the emergency it is, take the Carbon Pollution Rewards Scheme back to the drawing board, and take much stronger action to create green jobs and a switch to 100% renewable energy by 2020.

Rallies were held in Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Wollongong.

Damien Lawson’s opinion piece published in The Age today sums up the sentiments of protestors: Stop wasting time and save the planet Mr Rudd

For photos of the event click here, here and here.

The rallies received media attention in Australia and internationally, see:

BBC - Australians demand climate action
Reuters India - Australians demand more action on climate change

ABC Online - Wong defends policy amid climate change protests
The Sydney Morning Herald - Activists call for green jobs
The West Australian - Hundreds rally in Perth for climate action

...and compilation of TV coverage in Sydney


Thursday, June 4, 2009

Be there, or be Heather Ridout*!

6 months to Copenhagen and a crucial vote on the terrible Carbon Pollution Law in the Senate. Now is the time to show you care.

National Climate Emergency Rally
1pm, Saturday June 13, State Library, Melbourne



If you have thought of taking action on climate change, now is the time. Drought, bushfires, floods and rising seas are already hitting hard. It’s an emergency and we need emergency action.

In December 2009, governments of the world will meet in Copenhagen to create a new global climate agreement. Australia must support, not stop, strong global action.

We can tackle the recession and climate change together. Direct investment in renewable energy will create jobs, stimulate the economy and begin to create the carbon-free economy of the future.

100% renewable energy by 2020
Australia must make the shift from fossil fuels to 100% renewable energy from wind, solar and other available technologies.

Green collar jobs not job cuts
We can renew our economy by creating hundreds of thousands of ‘green jobs’ and supporting workers to make a fair and just transition to sustainable industries.

Strong international action with climate justice
Australia must take the lead in global climate talks, not undermine them with an ineffective 5%-25% target. Globally, we must to listen those who are most affected by climate change and least responsible for it.

Don’t pass the Carbon Pollution law
We need climate policies that make the big polluters pay and not allow big companies to go on polluting. The CPRS won’t reduce Australia’s greenhouse pollution.

Protect Australia’s Forests
Logging and clearing vegetation are major contributors to climate change as forests and woodlands are essential carbon stores.


1pm Saturday, June 13, State Library
Only a strong and growing movement for change will make a difference. Come with your friends and family to the Rally. Help promote the rally in your community.

Speakers and entertainment includes:
Peter Marshall - United Firefighters Union, Emeretta Cross -Tuvaluan climate activist, David Spratt - author Climate Code Red, Greens leader Senator Bob Brown, Rod Quantock - Melbourne comedian and Taegen Edwards - Yarra Climate Action Now.
Music by Melting Pot.

Weldon, first published in The Big Issue

* Heather Ridout is the Chief Executive of the Australian Industry Group. She has lobbied successfully against meaningful climate change action by the Rudd Government. She doesn't care how badly climate change will affect the world's people and species, as long as her members keep making massive profits.

We want a real solar feed-in tariff!

The Brumby State Government continues to support an ineffective solar feed-in tariff, that just won't do the job to encourage the take-up of solar panels across the state. As was reported in The Age this week, the Minister for Coal Industry Profits, Peter Batchelor has said that if the amendments to the tariff put forward by the Greens pass the State Upper House (with support from the opposition parties) then the solar feed-in tariff scheme will be pulled completely.

Yarra Climate Action Now has written to the State Member for Richmond, Richard Wynne, to ask the State Government to support the amendments and pass a scheme that will actually work to encourage clean solar energy. An abridged version of the letter is below. For the full version send us an email or leave a comment on this post.

This is a no-brainer really. We encourage all members of the public to email their local member in support of a gross solar feed-in tariff.

To see our previous posts on this issue with links to further information click here and here, and see Environment Victoria's web site.


Dear Richard,

The reason for this letter is the government’s failure to deliver on its clear election commitment to introduce an effective gross feed-in tariff to stimulate the growth of clean renewable solar electricity in the State of Victoria.

At the last election the Victorian State Labor Government committed itself to the institution of a ‘German style’ gross feed-in tariff to promote privately generated solar electricity. As is well known by now the institution of such a tariff which commits electricity generation and distribution companies to purchase all privately generated solar electricity at a premium rate was the centre-piece of the rapid expansion of photovoltaic solar electricity generation in Germany over the last decade and a half. This imposed small cost increases on conventionally generated electricity but created a great deal of employment in a rapidly expanding industry.

For reasons best known to itself after an acrimonious and difficult debate between proponents and opponents of such a scheme within the State Government, the Government finally adopted a position that committed the relevant industry bodies to purchase back from private generators only solar electricity generated in excess of requirement. In other words they would pay for that electricity that entered the grid and take as a free gift the reduction in overall demand generated by the installation of the equipment in the first place.

The government did this despite advice that such a scheme – known as a net feed in tariff – would do nothing to stimulate change to clean renewable solar electricity. It did this in the full knowledge that such a measure would discourage local investment by overseas producers of solar panels that the government was seeking. The rationale for rejecting a gross feed in tariff for a net feed in tariff was that introduction of the former would cost low income households too much in increased energy bills. This occurred despite credible informed advice to the contrary and the example of Germany where this did not happen. The justification for this action was a set of figures produced at the last minute by Energy Minister Peter Batchelor the source and basis for which are unknown and which Batchelor has consistently refused to discuss with the press, hiding behind spokespeople from his staff.

There is still an opportunity to salvage the solar laws as they pass through Parliament, so that we can develop a thriving solar industry in Victoria. The importance of making the Brumby Government’s solar laws meaningful for industry is now even more critical given the Federal Government’s plan to cut the solar rebate scheme as of 1 July 2009, and replace it with a less effective Solar Credits Scheme – effectively halving the support for small-scale solar installations. In Victoria this scheme must be complementary to any renewable energy target that Victoria has, it is not one or the other, but both. The climate science demands a transition to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible. We need to be taking emergency action now.

If the Government’s proposed solar laws pass through the Parliament in their current form, they will do little to support solar power, the solar industry development, or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We call on you, as our elected representative in the State Parliament, to work to implement the amendments to the legislation proposed by Environment Victoria, the Alternative Technology Association, the Moreland Energy Foundation and the Electrical Trades Union that are summarized below.

1. Allow business and community organisations to participate in the scheme.
The Brumby Government’s model excludes business, local government and community organisations like churches, from participating. This restriction should be removed to encourage all sectors to invest in renewable energy.

Premier Bracks made clear during the 2006 election campaign that small businesses would be included in the scheme. The Brumby Government must deliver on this election commitment, and also allow for the inclusion of community buildings in the scheme.


2. Increase the system size limit for the 60c per kWh tariff to 10kW.
The Brumby Government’s Bill excludes any solar systems of more than 3.2kW. This will effectively deter households from installing larger systems - a ludicrously perverse incentive for a scheme that is supposed to encourage solar power.


3. Make the 60c per kWh payable on gross, not just net generation.
The Victorian Government has shunned the experience of over 40 nations with feed-in tariffs and has decided to pay the tariff only on the excess generation of solar electricity that is fed back into the grid, rather than on all of the electricity generated.

The Government’s own departmental and independent advice (leaked to The Age earlier this year) stated that the proposed ‘net’ feed-in tariff would do nothing to increase the uptake of solar power in Victoria to 2020. This advice also found that the ‘gross’ feed-in tariff would lead to a seven fold increase in Victoria’s solar uptake to 2020.


4. Ensure that the small-scale renewable energy producers included in the scheme are actually paid for the electricity they generate.
Under the government’s proposed scheme, those eligible for the 60c tariff for feeding electricity into the grid would not actually be paid. The legislation suggests that a customer would receive a credit on their electricity bill if they fed energy into the grid. This amount would roll over to the next bill if it was not used.

However, if this credited amount of electricity was not used within 12 months, or if the customer changed retailer it would simply evaporate. The customer is left with nothing. For an energy efficient household with a 3.0kW system this lost credit could amount up to $600 and would establish a perverse incentive for the householder to consume more energy towards the end of the twelve-month period.


Failure to rectify these flaws in the proposed legislation would make it difficult to escape the conclusion that, despite its election commitments and the positive effects springing from them in terms of employment growth and industrial investment, this government is committed to avoiding meaningful action to promote the growth of clean renewable solar electricity.

Thus far the Brumby Government has a lamentable record on climate change action (as opposed to rhetoric). The voters in the Seat of Richmond are aware of the climate science and want urgent, emergency action to prevent runaway climate change and create green jobs. We hope that you will heed this letter and finally begin to fulfill a clear and unambiguous election commitment to support the growth of the solar electricity industry by introducing an effective gross feed-in tariff.

Yours faithfully,
Yarra Climate Action Now

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

What will global warming look like? Scientists point to Australia

The view from the USA - this excellent article, published in the LA Times, gives a fascinating perspective on climate change in Australia, one we don't usually get from within this country.

(Los Angeles Times / Brian Vander Brug)

Reporting from The Murray-Darling Basin, Australia -- Frank Eddy pulled off his dusty boots and slid into a chair, taking his place at the dining room table where most of the critical family issues are hashed out. Spreading hands as dry and cracked as the orchards he tends, the stout man his mates call Tank explained what damage a decade of drought has done.

"Suicide is high. Depression is huge. Families are breaking up. It's devastation," he said, shaking his head. "I've got a neighbor in terrible trouble. Found him in the paddock, sitting in his [truck], crying his eyes out. Grown men -- big, strong grown men. We're holding on by the skin of our teeth. It's desperate times."

A result of climate change?

"You'd have to have your head in the bloody sand to think otherwise," Eddy said.

To read the full report, including a video and pictures, click here.


(Los Angeles Times / Brian Vander Brug)

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Five things the government doesn't want you to know about climate change

The following text is from a flyer that Yarra Climate Action Now has produced. For electronic or hard copies of the flyer contact us on YarraCAN@gmail.com.



The world’s scientists are telling us that we are facing a climate emergency. We are running out of time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, and need to act urgently. The effects of runaway climate change are unthinkable and must be avoided at all costs. However, our governments are beholden to vested interests in the fossil fuel and other dirty industry lobbies and are not dealing with this issue adequately. This is what you need to know:

1. The Federal Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) is worse than nothing.
The scheme will:
- Lock in inadequate emissions reduction targets of 5-25% by 2020 on 2000 levels - completely out of touch with what the scientists are calling for.
- Undermine international negotiations on a global emissions agreement by showing Australia is not willing to pull its weight.
- Expose taxpayers to possible compensation claims when we have a government that will actually take climate change seriously by giving pollution property rights to polluters.
- Result in a massive transfer of wealth from all of us to already rich, polluting companies, through free permits and other "compensation" giveaways.
- Disenfranchise voluntary action by households and communities, by ensuring their efforts do nothing to reduce emissions and only free up more permits for polluters.

It needs to be scrapped and sent back to the drawing board. Even without a scheme Australia must participate in international negotiations and so will be forced to reduce emissions in any case.


2. Climate science (it’s worse than you think)
As climate scientists study our climate system, they are discovering that they initially underestimated the effects of carbon pollution. Global warming is happening faster than previously stated, and most governments are basing their policies on outdated science. See key outcomes from the March 2009 gathering of climate scientists in Copenhagen.


3. Climate change is bad for the economy, fighting climate change creates jobs!
Climate change will cause progressively worsening economic shocks, which we are already witnessing, such as prolonged drought and extreme events (bushfire, heatwaves and windstorms). It will do the same to our trading partners. As climate change worsens, it has the capacity to cause recessions and depressions. Fighting climate change on the other hand, is likely to stimulate the economy and create jobs, since it will require a large investment to install renewable energy technologies and these technologies are more labour intensive than the old-fashioned dirty ones. See: www.unep.org/greeneconomy


4. Individual action is not enough
Governments like to talk about black balloons and changing light bulbs, but the truth is to stop climate change we will need significant change to business and politics as usual. This will require not only individual, but collective action that shifts the power balance in this country away from the big polluters and towards the Australian public.


5. The necessary technologies already exist
The technologies required to shift our economy to 100% renewable energy already exist. We do not need to wait for unproven technologies that are decades away like carbon capture and storage (clean coal). We can make the change now while leaving the coal in the ground. See: www.beyondzeroemissions.org and www.wecansolveit.org

Monday, May 18, 2009

Sign, sign, everywhere a sign...

Photo by Aerofoto

Yesterday, thousands of people went to St Kilda beach to send a message with our bodies to our so called leaders on climate change. The wording of the sign was chosen by local grade six student Sophie Dickinson.

Yarra Climate Action Now was a proud participant in this event, brilliantly organised by Locals Into Victoria’s Environment, supported by Bayside Climate Change Action Group, both local climate action groups in Melbourne.

The sign stretched for 350m and we are yet to hear if it broke the record for the world’s biggest human sign.


Kevin Rudd are you listening? John Brumby are you listening?

Our future is more important than the vested interests of a few large corporations. We need you to listen to the scientists and transition our country to 100% renewable energy as soon as possible. That means stop giving money to the big polluters, and invest in a green future and green jobs. Now.

If an eleven year old child can see it so clearly, why can't you?

For more photos of the event, click here, and for a video of the event, click here.


Sunday, May 10, 2009

UK Government Shames Australia on Emissions Reductions

Faced with a much worse recession than we are facing here, the UK Labour Government has pledged to cut Britain's emissions unconditionally by 34% on 1990 levels by 2020, with this to increase under an international deal.

The UK Government aims to do this without importing international credits, which have been heavily criticised by scientists and environment groups.

While these cuts are still not what climate scientists are saying the rich world needs to cut emissions by in order to avoid runaway climate change (well over 40% by 2020), compare it to the measly 5% by 2020 Kevin Rudd has offered for Australia - complete with importing of international permits.

If the UK can do this, why can't Australia do even better with our abundant renewable energy resources?

To read further on these policies click here.

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Response to the Rudd Government's amendments to the Carbon Polluters Rewards Scheme (CPRS)

The letter below was sent to Kevin Rudd today and signed by 66 climate action groups, including Yarra Climate Action Now.

RE: PROPOSED CHANGES TO AUSTRALIA’S TARGET AND CPRS

Dear Prime Minister,

The 66 Climate Action Groups signing this letter are completely shocked by your decision yesterday to further weaken Australia’s position on climate change.

We believe that you have abandoned your duty of care to protect the Australian people as well as our species and habitats from dangerous climate change.

Groups strongly oppose your new 2020 emissions reduction target band of 5-25% below 2000 levels:
  • We have consistently called for targets based on the best available climate science, which calls for reductions of at least 40 – 50% by developed countries by 2020.
  • The 5% unconditional target would, according to the world’s top scientists, commit us to catastrophic climate change and the IPCC’s worst-case scenarios.
  • The 25% upper target, if applied globally, would lead to at least 2°C of warming and the loss of the Great Barrier Reef. This is an untenable position and we cannot accept it.
  • These targets also remain out of step with the unconditional targets agreed to by other developed nations (the UK, US and EU have agreed to cut emissions by 34-46%, 20% and 20-30% from 1990 levels respectively).

Groups also assert that a global agreement based on 450ppm CO2e will not protect the Great Barrier Reef, as you suggested yesterday. International scientists estimate that atmospheric CO2 needs to be no more than 350ppm, but preferably closer to 300ppm, to avoid dangerous climate change.

Your decision to further weaken the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) by increasing the number of free permits, delaying the Scheme by a year and introducing a $10 price cap in the first year, completely flies in the face of the thousa
nds of submissions that were lodged by concerned communities, scientists and individuals.

Groups, once again, recommend you urgently fix the fundamental flaws in the CPRS:

  • Urgently exclude international permits from the CPRS so that actual emissions in Australia will begin to fall from 2010 onwards, rather than reductions only taking place from 2035 onwards (as forecast by the Federal Treasury).
  • Remove the emission floor in the CPRS (which prevents emissions from falling below the 5% target), to ensure that individual action can contribute to additional emissions abatement over and above the 5-25% emissions reduction target band.
  • The proposed ‘Australian Carbon Trust’ does not address our concerns on the need for individual action to be additional to the 5% target. The Trust simply formalises what individuals were always able to do anyway. Nomatter what individuals do to reduce emissions we can never go beyond the 5% target.
  • Exclude both reforestation and deforestation from the Scheme – Groups note the current treatment creates a market distortion in favour of increasing native forest logging. This requires urgent rectification.
  • Replace ALL free-permits in the CPRS with a system of Border Adjustments, to ensure that these sectors transition to a lower emissions intensity without being unduly disadvantaged in the international market.
  • Change the requirements for the $3.9 billion of assistance to coal-fired generators under the CPRS to be conditional upon a phase-out plan for these generators.

Yesterday’s announcement has confirmed to us that you have not been able to stand up to the immense pressure exerted upon you by industry.

Your election promises to the Australian people on climate change were clear and unequivocal. Despite all of this, you have chosen to put industry interests above the national interest.

We stand by our comments to the Senate last month – we believe that your climate change ‘spin’ is deceptive and misleading to both the Australian public and the international community.

The 66 Climate Action Groups signing this letter urge you to treat climate change as the emergency it is, and broker an ambitious new climate deal for Australia that truly addresses the needs of future generations, builds new jobs in ecologically sustainable industries and protects our precious species and habitats.

Yours sincerely,

Yarra Climate Action Now and 65 other climate action groups


Saturday, May 2, 2009

Fix the Feed-in Tariff!



Rally
1pm Wednesday 6 May
Steps of Parliament House, Spring Street

This protest is to demand a real feed-in tariff for Victoria, as opposed to the pointless scheme being proposed by the Brumby Government.

A real, gross, feed-in tariff will:
  • increase the number of solar panels on Victorian roofs
  • grow green collar jobs in Victoria
  • support our solar industry
  • and reduce our greenhouse gas emissions

Come out to support green jobs and solar energy. We have a unique opportunity to influence the Victorian Parliament to amend the flawed legislation!

For further information on solar feed-in tariffs, see our previous blog entry here, and see Environment Victoria’s website.

Contact Victoria@envict.org.au for further information.

To send Ted Baillieu a message on this issue instantly, click here.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Climate Basics Explained: How hot is too hot?

Today the world's average temperature is just under one degree Celsius above what it was in pre-industrial times. Some scientists are saying that with the current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, a two degree rise is locked in unless we can reduce emissions to almost zero and actively remove carbon from the atmosphere. It is also likely that on current emissions trajectories, we will reach a six degree rise by 2100.

The Australian Federal Government and most governments around the world have yet to officially set what temperature rise they believe is adequately safe. Many unofficially subscribe to the aim of keeping temperature rise to two degrees or below. However, the most recent science indicates that this may be too high and trigger feedback loops that result in more temperature rises outside of humanity's control.

So what do these temperature rises mean in reality?

The following summary has been taken from two sources. Mark Lynas' article in The Guardian and David Spratt's presentation at the Moreland Climate Group's recent climate debate. We will count down from six to one.

Six Degrees and Above
Danger of "runaway warming", perhaps spurred by the release of oceanic methane hydrates. Could the surface of the Earth become like Venus, entirely uninhabitable? Most sea life is dead. Human refuges are now confined entirely to highland areas and the polar regions. The human population is drastically reduced. Perhaps 90% of species become extinct, rivalling the worst mass extinctions in the Earth's 4.5 billion-year history.


Five Degrees
Global average temperatures are now hotter than for 50 million years. At this time breadfruit trees grew on the coast of Greenland, while the Arctic Ocean saw water temperatures of 20 degrees Celsius. There was no ice at either pole (today that means a 70-metre sea-level rise), and much of the world would have been desertified.

At five degrees, most of the topics, sub-tropics and even lower mid-latitudes are too hot to be inhabitable. Sea level rise is now sufficiently rapid that coastal cities across the world are largely abandoned.

Prof. Hans Joachim Schellnuhuber, Director of the Potsdam Institute and adviser to the European Union and to the German Chancellor, told the Copenhagen science conference in March that a rise to 5–6 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels would reduce "the carrying capacity of the planet (to) below 1 billion people".


Four Degrees
A tipping point sees massive amounts of methane - a potent greenhouse gas - released by melting Siberian permafrost, further boosting global warming and making further human action to mitigate emissions futile. Much human habitation in southern Europe, north Africa, the Middle East and other sub-tropical areas is rendered unviable due to excessive heat and drought. Deserts are spreading in Italy, Spain, Greece and Turkey. The focus of civilisation moves towards the poles, where temperatures remain cool enough for crops, and rainfall - albeit with severe floods - persists. All sea ice is gone from both poles; mountain glaciers are gone from the Andes, Alps and Rockies, with severe water supply implications for these areas.


Three Degrees
3 degrees Celsius is the cap effectively being advocated by Australia’s Labor government. Labor policy is a 60 per cent reduction in Australian emissions by 2050. Sir Nicholas Stern says explicitly that for developed nations this is a 3 degrees Celsius target, telling the National Press Club in Canberra it would be "a very good idea if all rich countries, including Australia, set themselves a target for 2050 of at least 60 per cent emissions reductions" and this would leave us with "roughly a fifty-fifty chance of being either side of 3 degrees above pre-industrial times".

This is the target that both Stern and Garnaut advocated, but Stern now says that “We haven't seen 3 degrees Celsius for a few million years, and we don't know what that looks like”. But from the Pliocene 3 million years ago we know what a 3 degrees Celsius world would likely be: a northern hemisphere free of glaciers and icesheets, where beech trees grew in the Transantarctic mountains, sea levels were 25 metres higher, and probably permanent El Nino conditions.

Glacier and snow-melt in the world's mountain chains will deplete freshwater flows to downstream cities and agricultural land. Most affected are California, Peru, Pakistan and China. Global food production is under threat as key breadbaskets in Europe, Asia and the United States suffer drought, and heatwaves outstrip the tolerance of crops. The Gulf Stream current declines significantly. Cooling in Europe is unlikely due to global warming, but oceanic changes alter weather patterns and lead to higher than average sea level rise in the eastern US and UK.

NASA climate chief Dr James Hansen has warned that a 3 degrees Celsius warming "threatens even greater calamity, because it could unleash positive feedbacks such as melting of frozen methane in the Arctic, as occurred 55 million years ago, when more than 90 per cent of species on Earth went extinct". Hitting three degrees may mean that we are not able to stop there.


Two Degrees
2 degrees Celsius has been a target of convenience in international negotiations, but is now losing consensus as the politicians head to 3 and 4 degrees Celsius, and the scientists towards zero.

To have a 2 in 3 chance of holding to 2 degrees Celsius, atmospheric carbon needs to be held to 400ppm CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) and that requires a global reduction is emissions of 80% by 2050 (over 1990) and negative emissions after 2070. For Australia, a 2 degrees Celsius target means a more than 95% cut by 2050.

A rise of 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial temperatures will initiate large climate feedbacks in the oceans, on ice-sheets, and on the tundra, taking the Earth well past significant tipping points. Likely impacts include large-scale disintegration of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice-sheet; the extinction of an estimated 15– 40 per cent of plant and animal species; dangerous ocean acidification; increasing methane release; substantial soil and ocean carbon-cycle feedbacks; and widespread drought and desertification in Africa, Australia, Mediterranean Europe, and the western USA.

Hansen told the US Congress last year that: “We have reached a point of planetary emergency… climate is nearing dangerous tipping points. Elements of a perfect storm, a global cataclysm, are assembled… the oft-stated goal to keep global warming less than +2 degrees Celsius is a recipe for global disaster, not salvation.”

Summer heatwaves such as that in Europe in 2003, which killed 30,000 people, become annual events. Extreme heat sees temperatures reaching the low 40s Celsius in southern England. Amazon rainforest crosses a "tipping point" where extreme heat and lower rainfall makes the forest unviable - much of it burns and is replaced by desert and savannah. Dissolved CO2 turns the oceans increasingly acidic, destroying remaining coral reefs and wiping out many species of plankton which are the basis of the marine food chain. Several metres of sea level rise is now inevitable.


One Degree
Today at just less than 1 degree Celsius of global warming we are witnessing of the destruction of the Arctic ecosystem. Eight million square kilometres of sea ice is disappearing fast each summer and may be entirely gone within a few years. Already 80% by volume of summer sea-ice has been lost, and regional warming of up to 5 degrees Celsius may have already pushed the Greenland ice-sheet (eventual sea-level rise of 7 metres) past its tipping point.

At less than 1 degree Celsius there is more frequent and intense heatwaves, ongoing drought around the Mediterranean and in Australia, sub-Saharan Africa and the western US, and the swift retreat of river-feeding mountain glaciers. The eastern Amazon is drying (some tributaries ran dry in the 2005 drought), low-lying island states are on the edge of a precipice, as are coral reefs. Britain’s Hadley Centre calculates that warming of just 1C would eliminate fresh water from a third of the world’s land surface by 2100.


It is obvious from these predictions that we need to reduce emissions and draw down carbon from the atmosphere, to get warming back down to as close to zero as possible. We need to make politically possible what is scientifically necessary.